In2021,thedirectimpactsoftheCOVID-19pandemiconglobalpoliticalandeconomicsecuritymayweaken,butitsindirect,orsecondary,impactsstillcannotbeignored.Thefollowing10trendsdeservegreatattention.WorldeconomystartsrestorativegrowthAfterthepandemic-induceddownturn,theworldeconomyin2021willstartrecoveringfromhistoricallowlevels.TheIMFestimatedthattherealglobalGDPgrowthratewillreach5.2%in2021,a9.5-percentage-pointsincreasefromthepreviousyear.TherealGDPgrowthrateofemerginganddevelopingeconomiesin2021willreboundfrom-3.3%to6.0%,anddevelopedeconomieswillalsorecoverfrom-5.8%to3.9%.GapineconomicscalebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesfurthernarrowsTheCOVID-19pandemichasacceleratedtheChineseeconomy'srelativeupsurgeinsizeagainstthatoftheUnitedStates'.AmongthemajoreconomiesincludingG20members,onlyChinamaintainedpositivegrowthin2020.The2.3%growthwascertainlyasignificantdropfromthepreviousyear's6.1percent.Butitwasanimpressiveaccomplishmentundertheimpactofthepandemic.China,withitsearly,swift,andforcefulresponsesaswellassupportofitsstrongmanufacturingcapacitiesand"InternetPlus"approach,hastakentheleadincontrollingthepandemicandpreventing“aftershocks”.Affectedbythepandemic,theUSeconomyshrankby3.5%in2020,andthesizeofChina’seconomygotclosertothatoftheUnitedStates'.TheIMFpredictedthatChina’sGDPwouldbeequivalentto76.8%oftheUS'in2021,andreach90%by2025.Amulti-polarpatternofglobalpoliticsemergesAfterBrexit,theconsistencyintheEUincreased.EU’slargeeconomyestablishedaverysolidpoliticalandeconomicfoundationforittostandalongwithChinaandtheUnitedStates.Astrong,ambitiousEuropeanUnionthatpursuesunityandself-relianceisqualifiedasanindependentpoleintheglobalpoliticallandscape.Itisexpectedthatstartingfrom2021,amulti-polarpatternfeaturingChina,theUS,andEurope,aswellasothermajorpowerslikeRussia,Japan,AustraliaandIndiawillgraduallytakeshape.PoliticalpolarizationandsocialdivisionintensifyinmanycountriesIn2021,thetrendofpoliticalpolarizationandsocialdivisioninmanycountrieswillfurtherintensity.InEurope,standoffsbetweenthe"Leave"and"Remain"factionsinBrexit,groupsthatsupportimmigrantsandanti-immigrationpopulists,andbetweenextremeright-wingandextremeleft-wingforces,playedoutatthesametime.IntheUS,the67%presidentialelectionturnoutin2020setarecordin120years.Trumpwonmorethan74millionpopularvotes,whichgreatlyexceededthe65.85millionandthe65.92millionvotesHillaryClintonandBarackObamarespectivelyreceivedin2016and2012.ThisreflectsthedivisionandpolarizationofdomesticpoliticsintheUS.InIndia,thepandemichasaggravatedIndiandomesticsocialstratification.Politicalpolarizationisaprojectionofeconomicandsocialdivisions.Thepandemichasexacerbatedinequalityandvulnerabilitiesinmanycountries.Forexample,thenumberofunemployedworkersinlow-wageserviceindustriesintheUShasincreased.BloombergBillionairesIndexshowsthatnowwhiteAmericansown83.9%ofthenationalwealth,whileblackfamiliesownonly4.1%.TheinternationalcommunitymayagainbedividedalongideologicallinesWesternpowersarejoininghandstodragtheworldintoideologicaldisputes.Ononehand,theBidenadministrationisactiveinplayingthe“ideologecard”,emphasizingthatdemocracyisnotonlythefoundationofAmericansociety,butalsothesourceofAmericanstrength.Ontheotherhand,theEuropeanUniontakestheinitiativetocatertoBiden’sideaandispreparedtosupportdemocraticvaluesaroundtheworld,adjustitsstrategicgoals,andpromote"democracy"and"progress"inAsia.In2021,WesterndevelopedcountriesledbyEuropeandtheUnitedStatesmayhighlightdifferencesandcontradictionsbetween“democraticsocietiesandmarket-economycountries”and“non-democraticsocietiesandnon-market-economycountries”,coerceprivatesectorsoftheircountriesandrelatedcountriestostopcooperatingwiththelatter,strivingtoturnideologicalconfrontationintosomethingprofitableforbothWesterngovernmentsandprivatesectors.ThegamebetweenmajorpowersshiftsfromconfrontationtocompetitionandcooperationMajorpowers,whooncesawtheirrelationsbecamepredominantlycompetitive,evenconfrontationaldrivenbytheDonaldTrumpadministration,willmorelikelydeveloppragmaticrelationshipsthatfeaturebothcompetitionandcooperationinvariousfieldsin2021-theymayplacemoreemphasisoncompetitioninsomefields,andmoreoncooperationinotherfields.Toitspartners,theBidenadministrationopposesTrump’sstyleofpolitics,andwillreiterateitscommitments,increaseinvestment,andrebuildrelationswithalliesandpartnersonthebasisofrestoringhistoricalpartnerships.AsforChina,whilestatingtheyitwillcoordinatewithalliesandpartnersanddealwithChinawitharules-basedapproach,theBidenadministrationalsoemphasizesthattheUSwillstandinlinewithChinabasedoninternationalnormsandrulesinthefieldsofclimatechange,non-proliferationandglobalhealthandsecurity.Chinaalwaysupholdsthespiritofno-conflict,no-confrontation,mutualrespect,andwin-wincooperationwiththeUS,andexpressedwillingnesstojointlypromotehealthyandstabledevelopmentofbilateralrelations.ChinawillcontinuetosupporttheEuropeanintegrationprocess,andbelievesthatEUcanplayagreaterroleininternationalaffairs.InternationalgovernanceshiftstomultilateralismandregionalismfromregionalintegrationSignificantprogresshasbeenmadeinmajorregionalcooperationarrangementssuchastheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipAgreementin2020.TheprogressofregionalintegrationiscriticaltoregionalandglobalresponsestotheCOVID-19pandemic,andwillplayanimportantroleinbuildingregionalresiliencethroughinclusiveandsustainableeconomicrecoveryinthepost-pandemicera.Inaddition,multilateralcooperationisalsousheringinnewopportunities.Bidensaidthatthenewadministrationwouldeliminatetradebarriersandresistprotectionism,andwouldjointlyformulaterulesonenvironment,labor,trade,technology,andtransparencywithotherdemocraticcountries.ThesecommitmentsareinlinewithEuropeanobjectives.Althoughtherearestillmanydifficultiesinmultilateralconsultationsinthefuture,anewimpetusforinternationalcooperationdrivenbyregionalintegrationandmultilateralismistakingshape.TechnologicalprogressaffectstheformofwarandnationalsecurityBigdata,artificialintelligence,dronesandothertechnologiesareadvancing,affectingnotonlytheproductionandlifestyleofhumanbeings,butalsotheformofwarandnationalsecurity.First,thefieldofwarhasgreatlyexpanded.Withthesupportofadvancedtechnology,warhasexpandeditsspherefromsea,land,andairtospace,frommacroscopicspacetomicroscopicspace,fromthephysicalworldtothevirtualworld,andfrombattlescenestolifescenes.Second,themeansofconfrontationhavegreatlydiversified.Technologicaladvancementsinthefieldsofdirectenergy,lifesciences,artificialintelligence,andnetworksmaychangethewaysofcommanding,conducting,andverifyingwars.Finally,theethicsofwarchanges.Withthedevelopmentofartificialintelligenceandothertechnologies,laborcanbecompletelyreplacedbynon-humantechnologies.Thevalsueofhumanbeingmaydecline,thentheimportanceofhumanlivesmaybeignoredaswell.In2021,theremaybemorespecialwarswithnewtechnologiesasthemainweapons.GlobalsupplychainsbeginsadjustmentsorientedatsecurityandflexibilityTheCOVID-19pandemichasmademostcountriesrealizetheimportanceofsupplychainsecurity.In2021,thedistributionoftheglobalsupplychainaswellasthelayoutofresearchanddevelopmentmaybegintoshiftfromefficiency-orientedtosafety-orientedtoagreaterextent.Truesecurityisbasedonopennessanddevelopment.Thefundamentalwayistocreatenewdomesticandglobalsupplychainsthatarepandemic-resistant,convenient,flexible,intelligent,andsecure.Countrieswithstrongproductioncapacityandeffectiveanti-pandemicmeasures,likeChina,maybecomeglobalsafeislandswhenothercountriesseekbackupsupplychains.ClimatechangemaycausefrequentnaturaldisastersInrecentyears,climatechangeisaffectingthewholeworld.In2021,extremeweatherintheworldmaybecomemorefrequent.ContributedbyInstituteofWorldEconomicsandPolitics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences;NationalInstituteofInternationalStrategyTranslatedbyRenMeiqi